Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 49.1%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Stamkos 49.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 79.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 58.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 59.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Kelly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Kelly
Stamkos
Last 10: Kelly 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
3
Kelly
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
0
Kelly
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
49.0% (433)
+1.0%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
54.3% (70)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
38.5% (26)
+6.4%
On power play, Stamkos has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kelly is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Kelly shoots left. Stamkos is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stamkos
Home
51.4% (350)
51.1% (327)
Away
45.0% (229)
46.0% (202)
By Period
Kelly
Stamkos
P1
46.9%
46.6%
P2
53.6%
51.5%
P3
46.8%
48.6%
OT
0.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2014 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 02:02 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 18:43 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |