Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 51.0%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 82.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Kelly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
15
(36 meetings)
21
15
Kelly
Stamkos
Last 10: Kelly 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
6
Kelly
Stamkos
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
10
3
Kelly
Stamkos
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
7
6
Kelly
Stamkos
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.4% (9,799)
+0.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.1% (1,725)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
49.7% (825)
-5.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stamkos
Home
52.6% (1,965)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Kelly
Stamkos
P1
49.2%
49.1%
P2
49.1%
52.7%
P3
51.9%
50.9%
OT
53.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2016 | 3 | 08:48 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 03:11 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 03:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 1 | 15:49 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2013 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 02:02 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 18:43 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |