Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Smith 48.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 50.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 57.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 58.6%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Kelly
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Kelly
Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
49.0% (769)
+2.1%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
63.6% (22)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
42.4% (118)
+2.3%
On power play, Smith has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Smith is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Kelly
Smith
Home
52.6% (1,965)
52.4% (490)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Kelly
Smith
P1
49.2%
46.9%
P2
49.1%
51.2%
P3
51.9%
47.7%
OT
53.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2012 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 2 | 13:16 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |