Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.5% vs 54.3%). Look for Thorburn on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thorburn wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 53.0% vs Thornton 54.3% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 51.2%
Defensive zone
Thornton 54.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 61.5%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Thorburn
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Thorburn
Thornton
Last 6: Thorburn 3-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thorburn
3
1
Thorburn
Thornton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Thorburn
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Thorburn
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (504)
53.5% (6,640)
+2.3%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
57.2% (1,387)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (91)
56.7% (427)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Thorburn is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (436).
Thorburn shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Thornton
Home
55.7% (305)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
51.3% (308)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Thorburn
Thornton
P1
54.9%
55.0%
P2
55.1%
53.3%
P3
51.1%
54.4%
OT
20.0%
56.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
53.5%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 03:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 2 | 03:43 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 3 | 16:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 3 | 02:22 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |