Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 49.9% vs Gaustad 59.0% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thorburn 55.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 58.9%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 57.6%
Result
Chris Thorburn favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Thorburn
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Thorburn
Gaustad
Last 5: Thorburn 2-3 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
2
Thorburn
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thorburn
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (171)
58.6% (790)
-5.4%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
66.7% (93)
-22.3%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (71)
61.0% (269)
-18.7%
On power play, Gaustad has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thorburn is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Thorburn shoots right. Gaustad is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Gaustad
Home
52.1% (119)
60.6% (554)
Away
47.7% (132)
58.9% (604)
By Period
Thorburn
Gaustad
P1
45.3%
61.3%
P2
53.8%
55.5%
P3
51.3%
62.3%
OT
20.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
40.7%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
49.8%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 29, 2010 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |