Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thorburn wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 53.0% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thorburn 90.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 86.7%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 50.7%
Result
Chris Thorburn favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Thorburn
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Thorburn
Gaustad
Last 8: Thorburn 3-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Thorburn
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Thorburn
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (504)
58.2% (4,334)
-2.4%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
65.4% (188)
-21.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (91)
54.8% (1,290)
-11.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thorburn is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (436).
Thorburn shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Gaustad
Home
55.7% (305)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
51.3% (308)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Thorburn
Gaustad
P1
54.9%
58.2%
P2
55.1%
56.4%
P3
51.1%
58.3%
OT
20.0%
66.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
53.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2015 | 3 | 08:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 15:06 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 29, 2010 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |