Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 30 meetings). Tierney wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 49.1% vs Spezza 54.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 38-26 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Tierney 68.1%
Defensive zone
Tierney 83.6%
Neutral zone
Tierney 72.7%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Tierney
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
38
(64 meetings)
26
38
Tierney
Spezza
Last 10: Tierney 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
26
Tierney
Spezza
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
13
5
Tierney
Spezza
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tierney
9
7
Tierney
Spezza
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (5,342)
54.4% (7,990)
-5.1%
Power Play
52.3% (342)
56.8% (1,726)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (857)
52.7% (643)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Tierney is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,404).
Tierney shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Tierney
Spezza
Home
50.6% (3,270)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
47.7% (3,271)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Tierney
Spezza
P1
49.3%
55.7%
P2
47.7%
54.4%
P3
50.5%
54.1%
OT
47.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.7%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
49.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:16 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 06:23 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 12:07 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 01:29 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Chris Tierney |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 01:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 16:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |