Scouting Report
Chris Tierney holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tierney wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 50.8% vs Barzal 42.8% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 77.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 70.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 75.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Tierney
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Tierney
Barzal
Last 7: Tierney 2-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Tierney
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Tierney
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
3
Tierney
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (844)
41.9% (516)
+10.2%
Power Play
50.7% (75)
40.0% (60)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
25.0% (4)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Tierney has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tierney is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Tierney shoots left. Barzal is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Tierney
Barzal
Home
51.2% (521)
46.9% (303)
Away
50.6% (522)
35.7% (277)
By Period
Tierney
Barzal
P1
49.3%
39.9%
P2
50.4%
45.1%
P3
53.4%
39.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.5%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2018 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 3 | 06:55 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 2 | 02:47 | Neutral | Chris Tierney |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2018 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |