Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for VandeVelde on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). VandeVelde wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
VandeVelde 51.7% vs Kesler 57.0% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
VandeVelde 59.6%
Defensive zone
VandeVelde 56.4%
Neutral zone
VandeVelde 53.4%
Result
Chris VandeVelde favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
VandeVelde
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
VandeVelde
Kesler
Last 7: VandeVelde 3-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
VandeVelde
Kesler
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: VandeVelde
3
1
VandeVelde
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
VandeVelde
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
VandeVelde
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (119)
57.3% (1,022)
-5.2%
Power Play
59.1% (22)
61.5% (200)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
54.9% (257)
-2.0%
On even strength, Kesler has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. VandeVelde is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (43).
VandeVelde shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Home / Away
VandeVelde
Kesler
Home
56.8% (81)
58.6% (766)
Away
48.7% (78)
56.2% (730)
By Period
VandeVelde
Kesler
P1
48.1%
58.9%
P2
51.9%
56.8%
P3
60.0%
57.5%
OT
40.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
60.5%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
VandeVelde
50.0%▲
42.0%
52.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 05:40 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Chris VandeVelde |
| Apr 5, 2011 | 1 | 04:27 | Defensive | Chris VandeVelde |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Chris VandeVelde |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 2, 2011 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |