Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Wagner wins 65.7% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 53.5% vs Roy 45.3% (+15.2%)
H2H factor
Wagner leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 53.1%
Defensive zone
Wagner 75.2%
Neutral zone
Wagner 70.0%
Result
Chris Wagner favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Wagner
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Wagner
Roy
Last 10: Wagner 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wagner
5
1
Wagner
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (51)
44.8% (784)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (4)
42.9% (14)
+57.1%
On penalty kill, Wagner has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Wagner is 65.7% vs left-shot opponents (35).
Wagner shoots right. Roy is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Wagner
Roy
Home
59.6% (47)
45.8% (421)
Away
62.5% (8)
43.9% (488)
By Period
Wagner
Roy
P1
52.9%
44.9%
P2
66.7%
43.6%
P3
60.0%
46.4%
Final 5 min
54.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
60.0%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 17:29 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | Derek Roy |