Scouting Report
Chris Wagner holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.0% vs Roy 47.4% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Wagner leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 76.7%
Defensive zone
Wagner 74.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 50.6%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Wagner
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Wagner
Roy
Last 10: Wagner 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wagner
5
1
Wagner
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (1,243)
46.4% (3,031)
+4.4%
Power Play
40.0% (20)
53.6% (560)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (307)
46.8% (267)
-4.8%
On power play, Roy has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Wagner is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Wagner shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Home / Away
Wagner
Roy
Home
49.8% (817)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
47.9% (753)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Wagner
Roy
P1
48.6%
47.6%
P2
48.6%
46.2%
P3
49.5%
48.5%
OT
50.0%
43.1%
Final 5 min
49.2%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 17:29 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | Derek Roy |