Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Wagner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.0% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaustad 63.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 95.2%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 89.6%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Wagner
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Wagner
Gaustad
Last 5: Wagner 4-1 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
3
0
Wagner
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Wagner
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Gaustad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (1,243)
58.2% (4,334)
-7.4%
Power Play
40.0% (20)
65.4% (188)
-25.4%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (307)
54.8% (1,290)
-12.8%
On power play, Gaustad has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Wagner is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Wagner shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Wagner
Gaustad
Home
49.8% (817)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
47.9% (753)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Wagner
Gaustad
P1
48.6%
58.2%
P2
48.6%
56.4%
P3
49.5%
58.3%
OT
50.0%
66.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2015 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 2 | 13:54 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |