Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 47.1% vs Thornton 50.8% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 63.8%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 70.8%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 66.8%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Dvorak
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Dvorak
Thornton
Last 5: Dvorak 0-5 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Dvorak
Thornton
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Dvorak
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (851)
49.8% (544)
-2.9%
Power Play
48.7% (113)
54.5% (178)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (42)
46.7% (15)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Dvorak is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Dvorak shoots left. Thornton is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Thornton
Home
47.5% (526)
54.9% (355)
Away
46.0% (480)
47.1% (382)
By Period
Dvorak
Thornton
P1
48.0%
46.0%
P2
46.3%
52.5%
P3
46.2%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.9%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
40.0%▼
52.0%
46.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 19:26 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 29, 2016 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 2 | 03:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |