Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hodgson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hodgson wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hodgson 46.6% vs Backes 50.7% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Hodgson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 53.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 70.4%
Neutral zone
Backes 64.4%
Result
David Backes favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Hodgson
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Hodgson
Backes
Last 10: Hodgson 6-4 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hodgson
Backes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
0
1
Hodgson
Backes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hodgson
4
2
Hodgson
Backes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hodgson
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,353)
51.1% (5,772)
-4.9%
Power Play
48.9% (493)
50.8% (1,082)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (157)
47.4% (930)
-4.7%
On even strength, Backes has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Hodgson is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,049).
Hodgson shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,127).
Home / Away
Hodgson
Backes
Home
48.8% (1,431)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
44.3% (1,577)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
Hodgson
Backes
P1
47.9%
50.1%
P2
48.9%
51.5%
P3
42.3%
50.8%
OT
44.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
45.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.4%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 15:45 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 3 | 07:34 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Nov 4, 2011 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 18:26 | Neutral | David Backes |