Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.4% vs 46.5%). Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Hodgson wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hodgson 46.6% vs Stepan 46.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 25-20 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Hodgson 50.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Hodgson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
25
(45 meetings)
20
25
Hodgson
Stepan
Last 10: Hodgson 4-6 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Hodgson
Stepan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
9
11
Hodgson
Stepan
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
7
10
Hodgson
Stepan
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hodgson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,353)
46.5% (10,204)
-0.3%
Power Play
48.9% (493)
48.8% (1,593)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (157)
44.2% (1,368)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Hodgson is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,049).
Hodgson shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Home / Away
Hodgson
Stepan
Home
48.8% (1,431)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
44.3% (1,577)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Hodgson
Stepan
P1
47.9%
47.5%
P2
48.9%
45.6%
P3
42.3%
46.8%
OT
44.1%
40.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 19:52 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 19:20 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 17:10 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 03:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |