Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McCormick on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCormick wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCormick 43.8% vs Spezza 55.8% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 56.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 51.3%
Neutral zone
McCormick 51.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
McCormick
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
McCormick
Spezza
Last 9: McCormick 4-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCormick
2
1
McCormick
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
McCormick
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
McCormick
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCormick
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (303)
56.1% (795)
-14.5%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
56.9% (211)
-23.6%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
56.3% (190)
+10.4%
On power play, Spezza has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. McCormick is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (118).
McCormick shoots right. Spezza is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
McCormick
Spezza
Home
45.6% (182)
56.6% (532)
Away
36.6% (134)
56.0% (678)
By Period
McCormick
Spezza
P1
45.8%
58.8%
P2
40.0%
59.6%
P3
38.6%
50.4%
Final 5 min
48.8%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCormick
50.0%▼
54.0%
41.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Cody McCormick |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 2 | 11:41 | Neutral | Cody McCormick |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Cody McCormick |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Cody McCormick |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |