Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McCormick wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCormick 46.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCormick 50.0%
Defensive zone
McCormick 80.9%
Neutral zone
McCormick 67.4%
Result
Cody McCormick favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
McCormick
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McCormick
Pavelski
Last 8: McCormick 3-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
4
McCormick
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCormick
3
1
McCormick
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCormick
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (708)
53.6% (8,791)
-7.3%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
58.2% (2,122)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (125)
50.9% (1,138)
-9.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. McCormick is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (335).
McCormick shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
McCormick
Pavelski
Home
47.9% (486)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
42.6% (364)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
McCormick
Pavelski
P1
47.8%
53.5%
P2
42.4%
55.2%
P3
46.5%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
45.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCormick
50.0%▼
54.0%
45.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Cody McCormick |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Cody McCormick |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Cody McCormick |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |