Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cave wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cave 49.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cave 80.1%
Defensive zone
Cave 77.8%
Neutral zone
Cave 80.1%
Result
Colby Cave favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Cave
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Cave
Kesler
Last 9: Cave 2-7 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cave
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Cave
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Cave
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cave
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (445)
56.4% (8,095)
-6.3%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
60.7% (1,437)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (43)
50.5% (1,908)
-8.6%
On power play, Kesler has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Cave is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (154).
Cave shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Cave
Kesler
Home
46.8% (233)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
51.3% (267)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Cave
Kesler
P1
46.3%
56.5%
P2
48.3%
55.9%
P3
53.7%
56.1%
OT
50.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cave
42.0%▼
50.5%
49.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Colby Cave |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Colby Cave |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 01:00 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |