Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Schwindt wins 36.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwindt 46.8% vs Dowd 49.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwindt 86.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.7%
Neutral zone
Schwindt 59.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Schwindt
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Schwindt
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Schwindt
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Schwindt
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwindt
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (122)
51.7% (644)
-8.3%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
0.0% (2)
+75.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
41.6% (221)
+2.8%
On power play, Schwindt has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Schwindt is 36.8% vs right-shot opponents (57).
Schwindt shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Schwindt
Dowd
Home
40.3% (77)
48.6% (451)
Away
50.0% (58)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Schwindt
Dowd
P1
47.6%
49.1%
P2
42.9%
47.3%
P3
43.2%
51.4%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwindt
44.0%▼
47.0%
44.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |