Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 85.2%
Defensive zone
Fraser 82.6%
Neutral zone
Fraser 82.1%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Fraser
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Fraser
Pavelski
Last 7: Fraser 1-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
4
Fraser
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Fraser
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
53.4% (682)
-5.8%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
63.7% (168)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
48.1% (160)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Fraser is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (178).
Fraser shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Fraser
Pavelski
Home
47.1% (293)
59.0% (527)
Away
41.7% (259)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Fraser
Pavelski
P1
46.3%
50.8%
P2
43.1%
58.9%
P3
44.7%
53.6%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 3 | 12:16 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |