Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fraser 76.1%
Defensive zone
Fraser 79.5%
Neutral zone
Fraser 78.3%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Fraser
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Fraser
Pavelski
Last 10: Fraser 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
4
Fraser
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Fraser
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
53.6% (8,791)
-5.6%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
58.2% (2,122)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
50.9% (1,138)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Fraser shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Fraser
Pavelski
Home
48.6% (661)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
44.0% (602)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Fraser
Pavelski
P1
46.7%
53.5%
P2
46.4%
55.2%
P3
46.2%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 28, 2011 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 3 | 12:16 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |