Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Thornton 54.1% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 65.9%
Defensive zone
Fraser 89.7%
Neutral zone
Fraser 76.4%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Fraser
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Fraser
Thornton
Last 5: Fraser 0-5 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Fraser
Thornton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Fraser
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
52.8% (922)
-5.2%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
56.1% (196)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
62.0% (100)
-27.1%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Fraser is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Fraser shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Home / Away
Fraser
Thornton
Home
47.1% (293)
54.9% (597)
Away
41.7% (259)
54.0% (643)
By Period
Fraser
Thornton
P1
46.3%
53.0%
P2
43.1%
51.2%
P3
44.7%
57.8%
OT
33.3%
72.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |