Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Thornton 54.3% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 67.3%
Defensive zone
Fraser 75.7%
Neutral zone
Fraser 73.2%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Fraser
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Fraser
Thornton
Last 8: Fraser 2-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Fraser
Thornton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Fraser
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
53.5% (6,640)
-5.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
57.2% (1,387)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
56.7% (427)
-20.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Fraser
Thornton
Home
48.6% (661)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
44.0% (602)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Fraser
Thornton
P1
46.7%
55.0%
P2
46.4%
53.3%
P3
46.2%
54.4%
OT
33.3%
56.4%
Final 5 min
46.3%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2014 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 16, 2013 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |