Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Ward 48.4% (-2.0%)
Offensive zone
Ward 51.5%
Defensive zone
Ward 51.1%
Neutral zone
Fraser 50.4%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Fraser
Ward
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
51.3% (1,186)
-3.3%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
53.4% (238)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
35.5% (366)
+0.3%
On power play, Fraser has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Fraser shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Home / Away
Fraser
Ward
Home
48.6% (661)
50.3% (870)
Away
44.0% (602)
46.5% (921)
By Period
Fraser
Ward
P1
46.7%
47.6%
P2
46.4%
47.5%
P3
46.2%
50.3%
OT
33.3%
30.8%
Final 5 min
46.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%