Scouting Report
Kyle Chipchura holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Chipchura shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.8% vs Chipchura 48.8% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 54.1%
Defensive zone
Fraser 52.8%
Neutral zone
Fraser 57.5%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Fraser
Chipchura
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Fraser
Chipchura
Last 7: Fraser 3-4 Chipchura
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Chipchura
0
1
Fraser
Chipchura
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chipchura
0
2
Fraser
Chipchura
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
1
Fraser
Chipchura
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Chipchura
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (160)
48.6% (255)
-3.0%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
50.0% (4)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Fraser has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chipchura shoots left. Fraser is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (123).
Fraser shoots left. Chipchura is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Fraser
Chipchura
Home
49.5% (95)
49.1% (163)
Away
42.5% (73)
46.9% (98)
By Period
Fraser
Chipchura
P1
42.6%
48.2%
P2
48.1%
52.2%
P3
49.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Chipchura
56.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 13:16 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 11:58 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 05:39 | Neutral | Kyle Chipchura |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 05:29 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 02:17 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 01:42 | Defensive | Kyle Chipchura |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Kyle Chipchura |