Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fraser wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Duchene 50.4% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 60.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 76.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Fraser
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Fraser
Duchene
Last 5: Fraser 5-0 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
0
Fraser
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
0
Fraser
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
50.5% (1,070)
-2.9%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
49.3% (136)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
50.0% (20)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Fraser is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Fraser shoots left. Duchene is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Home / Away
Fraser
Duchene
Home
47.1% (293)
49.8% (633)
Away
41.7% (259)
51.1% (613)
By Period
Fraser
Duchene
P1
46.3%
51.0%
P2
43.1%
51.5%
P3
44.7%
49.1%
OT
33.3%
36.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 04:10 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |