Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Duchene 54.1% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 94.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 72.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 84.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 81.5%
18.5%
81.5%
Fraser
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
0
(9 meetings)
9
0
Fraser
Duchene
Last 9: Fraser 9-0 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
0
Fraser
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
4
0
Fraser
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
0
Fraser
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
53.9% (10,396)
-5.9%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
56.9% (1,665)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
49.1% (468)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Fraser
Duchene
Home
48.6% (661)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
44.0% (602)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Fraser
Duchene
P1
46.7%
54.5%
P2
46.4%
54.5%
P3
46.2%
53.4%
OT
33.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
46.3%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 05:11 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 2 | 02:33 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 04:10 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |