Scouting Report
Nick Spaling holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Spaling 49.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Fraser leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Spaling 72.0%
Defensive zone
Spaling 74.1%
Neutral zone
Spaling 70.1%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Fraser
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Fraser
Spaling
Last 10: Fraser 7-3 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Fraser
Spaling
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
0
Fraser
Spaling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Spaling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
50.5% (2,263)
-2.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
43.4% (53)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
48.0% (498)
-12.2%
On power play, Fraser has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Spaling is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,835).
Home / Away
Fraser
Spaling
Home
48.6% (661)
51.9% (1,437)
Away
44.0% (602)
47.8% (1,378)
By Period
Fraser
Spaling
P1
46.7%
49.8%
P2
46.4%
48.3%
P3
46.2%
52.0%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2013 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 7, 2013 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 02:07 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 7, 2011 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |