Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Kesler 57.0% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 71.5%
Defensive zone
Fraser 77.8%
Neutral zone
Fraser 78.8%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Fraser
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Fraser
Kesler
Last 6: Fraser 1-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
3
Fraser
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Fraser
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
57.3% (1,022)
-9.7%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
61.5% (200)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
54.9% (257)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Fraser is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (178).
Fraser shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Home / Away
Fraser
Kesler
Home
47.1% (293)
58.6% (766)
Away
41.7% (259)
56.2% (730)
By Period
Fraser
Kesler
P1
46.3%
58.9%
P2
43.1%
56.8%
P3
44.7%
57.5%
OT
33.3%
31.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |