Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Kesler 55.9% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 80.9%
Defensive zone
Fraser 82.3%
Neutral zone
Fraser 80.6%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Fraser
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Fraser
Kesler
Last 7: Fraser 1-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
3
Fraser
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Fraser
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
56.4% (8,095)
-8.4%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
60.7% (1,437)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
50.5% (1,908)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Fraser shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Fraser
Kesler
Home
48.6% (661)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
44.0% (602)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Fraser
Kesler
P1
46.7%
56.5%
P2
46.4%
55.9%
P3
46.2%
56.1%
OT
33.3%
46.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2012 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 7, 2011 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 12, 2010 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 2, 2010 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |