Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Fraser wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 74.8%
Defensive zone
Fraser 75.8%
Neutral zone
Fraser 75.1%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Fraser
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Fraser
O'Reilly
Last 9: Fraser 2-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Fraser
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Fraser
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Fraser
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
53.4% (770)
-5.8%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
55.6% (54)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
44.4% (196)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Fraser is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Fraser shoots left. O'Reilly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Fraser
O'Reilly
Home
47.1% (293)
53.5% (533)
Away
41.7% (259)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Fraser
O'Reilly
P1
46.3%
50.8%
P2
43.1%
52.4%
P3
44.7%
51.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 03:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |