Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Fraser 84.4%
Defensive zone
Fraser 80.2%
Neutral zone
Fraser 81.0%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 81.3%
81.3%
18.7%
Fraser
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Fraser
O'Reilly
Last 10: Fraser 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Fraser
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
Fraser
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Fraser
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.2%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
58.8% (3,445)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
51.4% (2,811)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Fraser
O'Reilly
Home
48.6% (661)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
44.0% (602)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Fraser
O'Reilly
P1
46.7%
55.6%
P2
46.4%
57.0%
P3
46.2%
55.1%
OT
33.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 1 | 09:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 03:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |