Scouting Report
Shawn Horcoff holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Horcoff 49.6% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 54.4%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 50.2%
Neutral zone
Fraser 50.1%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Fraser
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Fraser
Horcoff
Last 8: Fraser 4-4 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
1
Fraser
Horcoff
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
2
Fraser
Horcoff
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Horcoff
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
50.6% (3,133)
-2.6%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
51.4% (555)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
43.0% (567)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Horcoff has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
Fraser
Horcoff
Home
48.6% (661)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
44.0% (602)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Fraser
Horcoff
P1
46.7%
48.2%
P2
46.4%
49.5%
P3
46.2%
50.9%
OT
33.3%
51.9%
Final 5 min
46.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2013 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Apr 6, 2013 | 1 | 16:08 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 1 | 19:09 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Apr 2, 2012 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Apr 2, 2012 | 3 | 11:00 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Apr 2, 2012 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 2 | 10:29 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 2 | 03:13 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |