Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wilson wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wilson 48.8% vs Spezza 53.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wilson 54.7%
Defensive zone
Wilson 54.1%
Neutral zone
Wilson 53.3%
Result
Colin Wilson favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Wilson
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Wilson
Spezza
Last 5: Wilson 2-3 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
2
0
Wilson
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Wilson
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wilson
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (312)
53.9% (1,097)
-6.8%
Power Play
63.3% (30)
54.8% (250)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
52.8% (89)
-52.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Wilson is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Wilson shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,020).
Home / Away
Wilson
Spezza
Home
44.4% (160)
55.8% (695)
Away
51.9% (183)
52.2% (741)
By Period
Wilson
Spezza
P1
49.2%
50.3%
P2
45.1%
54.7%
P3
50.6%
56.0%
OT
62.5%
73.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wilson
38.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2014 | OT | 00:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 1 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |