Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wilson 46.4% vs Spezza 54.7% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Wilson 76.4%
Defensive zone
Wilson 52.4%
Neutral zone
Wilson 61.8%
Result
Colin Wilson favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Wilson
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Wilson
Spezza
Last 10: Wilson 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
3
1
Wilson
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
6
Wilson
Spezza
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wilson
1
0
Wilson
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wilson
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (845)
54.4% (7,990)
-9.4%
Power Play
50.4% (244)
56.8% (1,726)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
52.7% (643)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Wilson is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Wilson shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Wilson
Spezza
Home
46.1% (531)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
46.1% (564)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Wilson
Spezza
P1
46.6%
55.7%
P2
43.2%
54.4%
P3
48.8%
54.1%
OT
45.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wilson
38.0%▼
47.0%
46.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2018 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 15, 2018 | 2 | 15:40 | Neutral | Colin Wilson |
| Nov 22, 2017 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | OT | 00:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 1 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |