Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wilson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wilson 43.5% vs Pavelski 55.5% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wilson 66.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.7%
Neutral zone
Wilson 62.0%
Result
Colin Wilson favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Wilson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Wilson
Pavelski
Last 5: Wilson 2-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
2
0
Wilson
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Wilson
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wilson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (157)
55.0% (785)
-13.0%
Power Play
26.3% (19)
62.7% (201)
-36.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
52.2% (161)
-52.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Wilson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Wilson shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Home / Away
Wilson
Pavelski
Home
39.0% (77)
58.1% (580)
Away
40.6% (101)
53.8% (567)
By Period
Wilson
Pavelski
P1
35.4%
53.4%
P2
40.0%
58.6%
P3
41.9%
56.4%
OT
50.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wilson
38.0%▼
47.0%
39.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |