Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wilson 46.4% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Wilson 75.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 57.0%
Neutral zone
Wilson 58.3%
Result
Colin Wilson favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Wilson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Wilson
Pavelski
Last 10: Wilson 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
5
0
Wilson
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
7
Wilson
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wilson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (845)
53.6% (8,791)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.4% (244)
58.2% (2,122)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
50.9% (1,138)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Wilson is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Wilson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Wilson
Pavelski
Home
46.1% (531)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
46.1% (564)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Wilson
Pavelski
P1
46.6%
53.5%
P2
43.2%
55.2%
P3
48.8%
53.9%
OT
45.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wilson
38.0%▼
47.0%
46.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 03:22 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 8, 2011 | OT | 01:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2010 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Colin Wilson |