Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Larkin 52.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 63.1%
Defensive zone
Bedard 58.1%
Neutral zone
Bedard 54.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Bedard
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Bedard
Larkin
Last 7: Bedard 3-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Bedard
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
1
0
Bedard
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
51.7% (878)
-7.5%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
58.5% (246)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
48.2% (166)
+5.6%
On power play, Bedard has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Bedard
Larkin
Home
50.7% (223)
52.4% (647)
Away
42.2% (270)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Bedard
Larkin
P1
40.8%
52.2%
P2
48.2%
53.1%
P3
48.0%
51.7%
OT
57.1%
61.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |