Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 39.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs Larkin 55.0% (-16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.1%
Defensive zone
Bedard 52.2%
Neutral zone
Bedard 51.9%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Bedard
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Bedard
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Bedard
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
55.9% (943)
-17.0%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
57.4% (244)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
46.2% (106)
-21.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Bedard is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Bedard shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Bedard
Larkin
Home
40.2% (246)
56.0% (654)
Away
37.8% (286)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Bedard
Larkin
P1
39.9%
54.4%
P2
38.5%
55.9%
P3
39.0%
55.2%
OT
25.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
38.9%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |