Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs McTavish 49.0% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 52.1%
Defensive zone
Bedard 70.4%
Neutral zone
Bedard 51.5%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Bedard
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Bedard
McTavish
Last 9: Bedard 3-6 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
4
Bedard
McTavish
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
McTavish
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Bedard
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
47.6% (616)
-3.4%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
57.8% (102)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
33.3% (6)
+20.5%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Bedard
McTavish
Home
50.7% (223)
52.2% (389)
Away
42.2% (270)
45.1% (335)
By Period
Bedard
McTavish
P1
40.8%
50.0%
P2
48.2%
47.9%
P3
48.0%
49.0%
OT
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:44 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |