Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Beniers 46.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 54.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 57.5%
Neutral zone
Bedard 54.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Bedard
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Bedard
Beniers
Last 10: Bedard 3-7 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
2
Bedard
Beniers
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
2
Bedard
Beniers
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
4
Bedard
Beniers
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
46.6% (3,796)
-6.5%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
47.8% (360)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
41.4% (111)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Beniers is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,447).
Home / Away
Bedard
Beniers
Home
43.3% (785)
48.9% (2,195)
Away
38.5% (896)
44.2% (2,072)
By Period
Bedard
Beniers
P1
39.0%
47.4%
P2
40.7%
47.1%
P3
42.6%
45.7%
OT
42.9%
34.1%
Final 5 min
44.9%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:49 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:40 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:28 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |