Connor Bedard vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Bedard
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Bedard
MacKinnon
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Bedard
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Bedard
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
2
Bedard
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
45.5% (1,190)
-6.6%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
56.4% (94)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
40.0% (30)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Bedard is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Bedard shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Bedard
MacKinnon
Home
40.2% (246)
47.8% (670)
Away
37.8% (286)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Bedard
MacKinnon
P1
39.9%
45.3%
P2
38.5%
48.5%
P3
39.0%
45.0%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:18 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:18 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 15:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |