Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.7% vs Foligno 49.8% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 73.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 55.5%
Neutral zone
Bedard 62.3%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Bedard
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bedard
Foligno
Last 6: Bedard 2-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (450)
49.0% (261)
-4.8%
Power Play
70.0% (30)
57.1% (42)
+12.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
47.1% (51)
+6.7%
On power play, Bedard has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Bedard shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Bedard
Foligno
Home
50.7% (223)
48.9% (178)
Away
42.2% (270)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Bedard
Foligno
P1
40.8%
40.4%
P2
48.2%
55.8%
P3
48.0%
51.2%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 01:29 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |