Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.3% vs Foligno 48.6% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 61.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 69.6%
Neutral zone
Bedard 63.9%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Bedard
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bedard
Foligno
Last 6: Bedard 2-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (1,580)
48.3% (2,810)
-8.2%
Power Play
51.9% (77)
52.3% (730)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
44.0% (455)
+6.0%
On even strength, Foligno has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Bedard is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,213).
Bedard shoots right. Foligno is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,501).
Home / Away
Bedard
Foligno
Home
43.3% (785)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
38.5% (896)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Bedard
Foligno
P1
39.0%
47.6%
P2
40.7%
50.4%
P3
42.6%
48.3%
OT
42.9%
29.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 01:29 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |