Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 74.5%
Defensive zone
Dewar 51.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 53.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Dewar
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Dewar
Bjugstad
Last 9: Dewar 5-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Dewar
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dewar
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
4
1
Dewar
Bjugstad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,008)
48.6% (6,634)
-3.2%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
55.2% (829)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
41.8% (194)
44.3% (614)
-2.5%
On power play, Dewar has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Dewar is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (403).
Dewar shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Dewar
Bjugstad
Home
43.4% (588)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
46.8% (637)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Dewar
Bjugstad
P1
43.9%
49.0%
P2
47.1%
49.1%
P3
44.3%
48.4%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
45.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:51 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |