Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Stepan 46.6% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 25-23 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 54.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
McDavid
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
25
(48 meetings)
23
25
McDavid
Stepan
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
6
McDavid
Stepan
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
7
12
McDavid
Stepan
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
7
McDavid
Stepan
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
46.5% (10,204)
+1.2%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
48.8% (1,593)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
44.2% (1,368)
-0.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stepan
Home
49.3% (4,570)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
McDavid
Stepan
P1
46.5%
47.5%
P2
48.7%
45.6%
P3
48.3%
46.8%
OT
40.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
50.1%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 16:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 11:48 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 12:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |