Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Stepan 53.4% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 52.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 53.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
McDavid
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
55.3% (358)
-3.8%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
0.0% (3)
+63.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
50.8% (61)
+0.4%
On power play, McDavid has a +63.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stepan
Home
50.7% (513)
57.7% (213)
Away
53.2% (498)
50.7% (209)
By Period
McDavid
Stepan
P1
52.3%
56.3%
P2
51.6%
48.9%
P3
51.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |