Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Stepan 47.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 58.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 67.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 60.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
McDavid
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McDavid
Stepan
Last 8: McDavid 5-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Stepan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
48.2% (1,155)
-4.9%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
48.2% (193)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
37.9% (174)
+4.0%
On power play, Stepan has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. McDavid is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (331).
McDavid shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stepan
Home
48.7% (413)
46.4% (774)
Away
37.4% (393)
47.7% (748)
By Period
McDavid
Stepan
P1
38.8%
46.7%
P2
46.8%
46.3%
P3
44.2%
48.1%
OT
45.5%
47.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2016 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2016 | 3 | 12:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2016 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2016 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2016 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2016 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |