Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 47.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Stepan 47.7% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
McDavid
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Stepan
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
McDavid
Stepan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
McDavid
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (633)
47.3% (877)
-0.4%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
54.4% (103)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
45.2% (217)
+0.3%
On power play, McDavid has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. McDavid is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (220).
McDavid shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stepan
Home
49.9% (353)
50.4% (560)
Away
45.4% (317)
45.1% (637)
By Period
McDavid
Stepan
P1
46.6%
47.4%
P2
50.9%
47.0%
P3
45.9%
48.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.8%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 12:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |