Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.5% vs 50.0%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs Stepan 50.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
McDavid
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
McDavid
Stepan
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
3
McDavid
Stepan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
McDavid
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (621)
52.7% (207)
-3.6%
Power Play
78.6% (14)
50.0% (26)
+28.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
29.6% (27)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. McDavid is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (182).
McDavid shoots left. Stepan is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stepan
Home
56.1% (330)
46.0% (113)
Away
42.5% (308)
53.1% (147)
By Period
McDavid
Stepan
P1
49.2%
48.5%
P2
47.4%
49.4%
P3
53.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 2 | 04:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 16:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 11:48 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |